“The destruction of the CDU“

There is more than only one opinion
Companies worldwide, in Europe and Germany see themselves facing many varied challenges at the moment and presumably also in the longer term. And in view of the variety of topics, most firms are holding up considerably well. And the geopolitical tensions, crises and wars are not the only reasons for the gloom. High energy prices as a result of disrupted supply routes, but also the windfall effects due to the market domination of the oil producers add to the persisting inflation rate. This is viewed critically by the central banks and/or is tackled and kept in check with interest rate increases.

In turn, this renews the attention of capital markets on the high national debt found almost everywhere, prime examples being in the USA and France. For this factor, too, alongside inflation and central banks, drives short-term and, above all, long-term interest rates. Depending on the size of debt and its proportion to economic output (GDP), and depending on the country, significantly higher risk premiums are demanded. Higher interest rates are problematic for national budgets and financial standing and consume government revenue which is no longer available then for future investments.

Yet the increasing demand for capital is not only to refinance or increase more national debt, but also the bloated AI (artificial intelligence) sector and the ever increasing number of data centres, has very considerable long term financing requirements. It is more the case that higher interest rates have not really been a stimulus for the economy as they are slowing or delaying urgently needed, more robust, investment activity away from defence and AI.

It is also no surprise now that especially the industrial economy is weakening, whether in Europe or in China. And even the US economy looks different if the technical sector and the second and third economy generated by it are taken out of the equation. In other words, also in the USA, it is not the classic branches which are responsible for the sizable growth rates. But this is not all.

Above all, in Europe the governments in the European Union (EU) and the member states do not tire of burdening companies with more administrative hurdles, beyond the economic challenges. The impression is that before bureaucracy can be reduced, which is rather more of a hollow intention, then it must first be blown up out of proportion so that, in the end, the overturning of these measures will result in success in terms of reducing bureaucracy.

According to the intentions of legislators (unlike those of IT experts), administrative processes are to be digitalised in parallel and at an ambitious pace (after years of nothing happening). Basically, this does make sense under the aspects of comfort, efficiency and paper saving, but it does not avoid the fact that public sector IT projects have to solve the same problems and challenges, as the software launches in companies. The devil is in the detail, even in seemingly simple processes.

Currently, therefore, many of the medium sized companies involved with the recycling and waste sector in Europe are dealing with the Digital Waste Shipment System (DIWASS) which was introduced on the 1st January 2026 by the EU Commission. One of the concepts of this was that the accompanying transport documents of dangerous goods, such as steel scrap, which crossed borders would be digitalised. By the start of the year however, the EU was not able to produce any functioning software, so that just before the end of 2025, the traditional paper format was quickly declared as being compliant with the regulations and accepted until the end of 2026.

Even though, up to today (9.10.2026), there is still no functioning testing system in Germany, not to mention the constantly changing interface specifications regarding integration with companies’ ERP systems, it is still the case that, from 1 January 2027, only the electronic format will be valid.

At the same time, companies are busy making preparations for the implementation of electronic invoicing, documentation and other regulatory requirements relating to NIS2, the EU cyber security regulations, while simultaneously also working on the upcoming changes in international payment formats (ISO 20022).

In addition, there are differences in implementation and varying deadlines across the various EU Member States. There is, therefore, much to do, but, unfortunately in times of fierce competition and small margins, a considerable amount of time is required by companies, which is not always available, and also not always viable. It is actually an untenable situation, but at least the authorities, software developers and consultants have plenty to do and up to the limits of their capabilities.

Furthermore, social reforms do not ensure future sustainability by adjusting benefits, but rather, they increase labour costs through ever-rising spending and contributions and reduce not only the competitiveness of businesses but also workers’ propensity to consume. Everything seems to be heading to a huge socialisation, with the burden being put on the next generations and a redistribution, which hits the so-called middle class to an especially great extent. This class has been, for a long time, the stable core of European society, working and striving hard to achieve more, and the driving force of the economic success story. And has also been the anchor for stability of democracies after the second world war.

This, logically, has consequences, as the results of elections in Germany and other countries show. Grievances are not lost on the voting public, which strengthens the extreme parties which want to solve the problems either by orders and obedience or by laissez-faire and riches for everyone (seemingly). In a background of the recent German state elections, where the Chancellor’s party, the CDU, did particularly badly, the young blogger Rezo, with his dyed blue hair, comes inevitably to mind. In May 2019, in a 55 minute YouTube video entitled “The destruction of the CDU”, which was seen by millions within a short time, he fully criticised the party’s policies and its ability to communicate.

Without going into detail about the sometimes dubious content of the video, this author has to admit that he dismissed this young man with an almost lordly arrogance. In retrospect, however, it has to be said that Rezo, almost as a clairvoyant, recognised many things before even the party, the media and the mainstream had.

If political parties (and also the media) do not even begin to listen to, and engage with, what the public itself is concerned and troubled about, then it is not democracy which is endangered, nor freedom of speech, but above all those who regard their own views as the only right truth and the only right way forward.

If then the majority of voters do not share these views, this will inevitably lead to the splitting up of the so-called political centre, represented by the former so-called mainstream parties, and to the inevitable strengthening of supposed alternatives. The established parties have to urgently reform, both in content and personnel.

The price of the nickel future on the London Metal Exchange (LME) is still stalling and at times even lighter than the previous month. There are good arguments, indeed, why the analysts from StoneX have set the new floor price for nickel at USD 17,000.00/mt: The dominance of Indonesia in nickel production, the fact that 20-30% of Indonesian nickel is produced using the HPAL leaching process, the systematic measures taken by the Indonesian government to increase the cost curve (for example by not making mining licences readily available) as well as the influence of the Iran war on energy and sulphur costs. In total, according to the calculations of StoneX, the range for break-even production of nickel in Indonesia should have increased from the original USD 9,000.00-11,000.00/mt to USD 17,000.00-20,000.00/mt.

However, this does not help an exchange-traded future, where there are also market participants who are relatively unconcerned about the fundamentals, also because they do not produce or use nickel themselves. On the contrary, the increased macro risks, especially the continuing lack of impulses in the economy and in demand, lead more to selling decisions. And if the guidance of a large European stainless steel producer ahead of the Q3 report is heeded, then investor expectations are not really far away from the present economic realities. In this environment the nickel price in London for 3 months delivery is at USD 15,700.00/mt.

Nickel: Market power alone does not support prices
Indonesia dominates the global nickel market, yet a sustained price support remains difficult. Reuters, in its analysis on the 23rd September, reported that more than 60 percent of global nickel production, in the meantime, is attributable to this south east Asian country. The export ban for unrefined nickel ore, reintroduced in 2020, had boosted the development of domestic processing capacities. Now it is clear: The control over a large part of supply is not enough to permanently stabilise prices. For this, an even stronger demand is also required.

In order to slow down the growth in supply, the government in Jakarta has reduced production quotas, tightened environmental controls and adjusted the ore price mechanism. The announced reduction of quotas from last year’s 379 million tonnes to between 250 and 260 million tonnes caused the nickel price on the London Metal Exchange to initially climb to USD 20,000.00/mt. At the time of Reuters’ analysis, it was once again at around USD 16,500.00/mt.

In addition, the government is now proposing a moratorium for new nickel processing plants which manufacture intermediate products. Minister Bahlil Lahadalia justified this with the surplus in supply which has caused a fall in prices. Indonesia’s nickel exports consist mainly of raw products such as nickel pig iron (NPI) and ferronickel. In future, plants for finished products should be supported more. The moratorium is so far just under consideration: The control of production quotas should still be continued.

The government faces a conflict of objectives: Reducing ore production is intended to stabilise the market, but must not endanger supplies to domestic processing plants. Consequently, higher quotas were granted to individual companies retrospectively, resulting in an immediate reaction from the nickel market. Additionally, operating companies are offsetting the reduced domestic production by importing ore. Supplies from the Philippines rose by 67 percent to 11.4 million tonnes between January and July compared with the same period last year

Despite the shortage forecast in April by the International Nickel Study Group (INSG), stocks of refined nickel continued to rise on the LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE). At a total of 478,000 tonnes, they represented approximately seven weeks’ worth of global demand at the time of reporting.

Production limits and a possible stop to new processing capacities, are affecting the supply side. However, sustainable price support also requires a stronger demand from the stainless steel industry and the manufacture of nickel-containing batteries. As encouraging signs, Reuters names the five percent growth of stainless steel production in the first half of 2026, as well as rising sales of electric vehicles outside the USA. A short-term rise in demand could, however, initially be met by high stock levels. Indonesia’s market power can slow down the growth in supply, but cannot permanently replace stronger demand.

From old ships to new buildings: Norway is focusing on the reuse of steel
Steel from decommissioned ships could be used more widely in the construction of new buildings in future. In Norway, a project supported by the state development agency, Enova, is supposed to show how an economically viable value chain can be established for this purpose. The idea behind this: Steel from ships is recovered, cleaned, tested for quality and recertified for use in building construction. Direct reuse eliminates the need for remelting.

That this method can technically function has already been tested in several pilot projects. One example is an eight-story office block in Bergen where steel from ships was used. Now new technologies should help in making the process more efficient and to implement it on a larger scale.

Enova has approved funding of up to 244 million Norwegian kroner (around 23 million euros) for the Nordic Circles and Alsaker Stål project, provided the project goes ahead. According to the development agency, this is the largest circular economy project it has supported to date. The total investment is expected to be up to 520 million Norwegian kroner (around 49 million euros).

The industrial implementation should use, amongst other things, AI-supported planning tools, automation and also new processes for cutting and cleaning the steel. The aim is to establish reused ship steel as a competitive alternative to newly produced structural steel. Decisive here is to verify that the required quality is reliable and to organise the processing economically.

The climate protection potential is enormous: According to Nordic Circles, the steel production can account for up to a quarter of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with the construction of a building. The reuse of existing steel construction parts can avoid a large part of these emissions.

The quantities of material available also open up new perspectives. According to Enova, around ten million tonnes of steel from European ships are scrapped each year, predominantly in Asia. If this steel were fully reused in new buildings, the organisation estimates that up to 17 million tonnes of carbon could be saved annually in European steel production. However, this number describes a theoretical potential based on the assumption of full utilisation. Furthermore, using ship scrap as a sustainable and quality-assured recycled raw material in the production of new high-quality steels is not a bad option, although from a sustainability perspective it is a second-best.

The Norwegian project shows, therefore, how additional circular economies for durable materials can be created. If its commercial implementation, which at the moment is still coupled with numerous uncertainties, proves successful, steel from old ships could become a regionally available source of material for Europe’s construction industry, whilst also creating new jobs in the processing sector.