Greetings from Emperor Nero

Tariff conflict calms down, but not yet resolved
The 3 months nickel future price on the London Metal Exchange (LME) has recovered again, almost as quickly as it sharply fell to below USD 13,900.00/mt at the beginning of April. Almost all markets worldwide, as a consequence of the trade war escalating between the USA and the rest of the world, had made sharp corrections. In the meantime, the Trump administration has started talks and negotiations with various countries and has taken on a more moderate tone. In the negotiations with China in Geneva, it would seem things will not be quite as bad as had been originally feared.

At the moment it seems as if an increased basic tariff of 10% is being discussed which China can presumably live with. It is possibly different for other countries since 10% is already a significant deterioration. President Trump has also stayed true to character with continually making new statements, which can be diametrically contradicted. Therefore, this can perhaps be seen as a calming of the situation and the markets. However, it is written in the stars whether the situation will change again.

Basically the markets seem to have overcome the initial panic reaction. Despite all the conflict, it should not be forgotten that while politicians set the framework, ultimately it is business which (must) ensure the actual economic performance from the private sector. The situation is different when it comes to the government’s share of gross domestic product, which is inflated by debt. The USA has recently had to take a hard lesson in this. It has been stripped of its top AAA rating (triple A) by all three top rating agencies, because of its excessive debt and high financing costs.

In the past it has repeatedly been shown that the actual and direct influence of governments on economic dynamics and success is rather limited, and therefore, different to what politicians often claim. The era of Federal Chancellor Merkel was, in the main, characterised by inaction, yet it was one of the most successful periods in German political history. It could also profit from some long term positive effects of previous governments, but above all from the strength of businesses. Unfortunately, some ad hoc populist mistakes were made which are today detrimental to people’s trust in democracy since the truth was not always spoken.

Today most companies are still innovative and also flexible enough to adapt relatively quickly to structural changes in supply and demand and the economic environment. In addition, globally spread companies do not only work in the USA or together with the USA. Considerable opportunities can now be created due to more diversification and the enforced move away from the USA.

Of course companies also make mistakes and can be surprised by developments. There is only one constellation where the absorption of changed conditions can be more permanently difficult, and this is when government action wilfully acts in a destructive way. Even if it sometimes seems as if Trump acts like a new “Emperor Nero”, we do not really want to imply that yet.

At the time of editorial deadline, nickel on the LME was trading at USD 15,500.00/mt and had even touched the USD 16,000.00/mt mark at times.

Oryx Stainless opens flagship site in Johor, Malaysia – Strong signal for the global green stainless steel production and the circular economy
On the 9th May 2025, Oryx Stainless officially opened its new plant in Johor, Malaysia. It is the first Greenfield investment by Oryx in Southeast Asia and a strategic move for the Asian steel industry in its efforts to achieve more sustainable growth. The group already has a successful site in Thailand.

Over 200 guests took part in the official opening ceremony, one of whom was Johor’s Chief Minister, YAB Dato’ Onn Hafiz Bin Ghazi, along with other government representatives, consulates, press and business partners from around the world. The new site was praised as a model project for sustainable industrial development and innovation.

With this expansion, Oryx Stainless underlines its engagement in the global circular economy. The highly modern plant in Johor will process immense quantities of stainless steel scrap and make a significant contribution to carbon reduction and conservation of resources.

The plant supports Malaysia’s goal of reducing its carbon emissions by 45 percent by 2030 and to mobilise around 300 billion Malaysian Ringgits for green investments by the end of the decade. According to the scientific studies, already discussed here, stainless steel scrap recycling saves, according to specification, up to 8.5 tonnes carbon per each used tonne in steel production, compared to the use of primary raw materials.

As well as the ecological importance, the plant is a successful example for know-how transfer and the training of certain skills. Local employees were specially trained in Thailand to operate the highly specialised machinery – including the first Sennebogen scrap handling machines ever to be imported to Malaysia. The number of employees should be doubled by mid 2026 – almost exclusively with skilled labour from Malaysia and Johor.

Oryx Stainless has also established partnerships with universities and education institutions in Malaysia in order to encourage engineering education and create new career possibilities for young talent.
(ORYX STAINLESS OPENS NEW FLAGSHIP FACILITY IN JOHOR, MALAYSIA – STRENGTHENING GLOBAL … | Presseportal)

Green transformation of steel industry: more efficient and more environmentally friendly with modern EAF
The new electric arc furnace technology (EAF) being developed by the SMS group in collaboration with Saarstahl, represents a major step towards sustainable steel production. The planned EAF in Völkingen will have a capacity of 185 tonnes and with an output of 300 MVA will be one of the most powerful of its type worldwide. This highly modern system enables the process of a flexible material mix, even up to 100% scrap or a mix of 80% cold direct reduced iron (CDRI)/hot briquetted iron (HBI) and 20% scrap.

An important feature of this technology is the usage of an energy mix, which by 2030 should consist of 70-85% natural gas and 30-15% hydrogen. This contributes to a considerable reduction in carbon emissions. The furnace has an annual capacity of 1.9 million tonnes liquid steel and is specially designed to significantly reduce the ecological footprint in steel production by optimising raw material use and energy efficiency.

The innovative technology of EAF also includes the “Condoor” system for optimised slag processing, which lowers energy use and reduces NOx emissions. Automation solutions such as X- Pact® Autotap and Genius CM® allow for safe, efficient and maintenance friendly processes. The SafEBT technologies guarantee a precise control of Eccentric Bottom Tapping (EBT) which further increases productivity.

Overall, EAF technology enables not only a flexible and sustainable raw material processing, but also a significant saving in resources, such as electrodes, carbon and lime. With the integration of modern automation and environmental technologies the new EAF will not only make an important contribution to the decarbonisation of the steel industry, but also set the standard for energy efficiency and environmental friendliness. This project underlines the transformation to carbon neutral steel production and offers a model for the green transformation of the industry.

For some rubbish, for others treasure
Despite the ignorance of some politicians or government representatives, the circular economy, recycling and urban mining, which offer massive economic and ecological opportunities, have recently gained in momentum. Often overlooked by the public and seen as pollution in the environment, landfill and waste are now emerging as important parts of future supply chains.

Important media outlets, such as Reuters and the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) are now headlining the strategic potential of recycling and landfills, especially since the traditional supply chains become unstable. At the same time, countries recognise that metal recovery can help achieve both economic and ecological goals. The circular economy is, therefore, finally getting the attention of the wider business press.

A convincing example is Glencore’s urban mining project in Canada, which the WSJ reported about because of its landfill endeavours. The study shows that the copper concentration in some landfills is double that of some geological mines – a remarkable result, as rubbish landfills are often ignored and seen as a social problem. The increase in attention is also of significance because the development of new conventional mines can take years and is often geographically limited, while landfills are widespread and have accumulated raw material reserves through constant use.

A further feature of scrap processing is its low cost and emissions profile. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), for example, the re-smelting of aluminium scrap uses 90 % less energy than that for the primary ore. In addition, the IEA estimates that scrap causes 80 % less emissions than when primary ores are processed. These factors, in conjunction with the reliability of scrap procurement, encourage interest in metal recycling.

Reuters reports that the US Defence and Energy Departments are now jointly investing a great deal in advanced recycling infrastructures, in order to increase domestic raw material extraction. For example, USD 270 million has been awarded to the Wieland Company for a copper recycling plant in Shelbyville, Kentucky. On the other side of the Pacific, China has founded a state-owned company for the circular economy, the China Resources Recycling Group Co. Ltd., which we have already made a report about.

In all the euphoria, it is important to maintain a balanced and realistic perspective, since, according to IEA, the supply bottlenecks in the aforementioned areas will go beyond 2030. Recycling, especially also from landfill sites, will supplement primary raw materials for smelting plants, but cannot replace them.

Yet, it can be endorsed that the corresponding metal parts are not lost through professionally recycling, but are made available again as new and end of life scrap in the circular economy. Therefore, it can also be said that the especially easy to recycle industrial metals, such as steel and stainless steel, can more or less be described as “permanent materials”. This is also important. Kunal Sinha, head of Glencore’s recycling department, for example, stated in an interview with the WSJ that “in the next 25 years, we will consume more copper than ever before”.

Nickel market 2025: Rising production meets growing uncertainties and surplus supply
The International Nickel Study Group (INSG) met on the 22nd and 23rd April 2025, in order to analyse the recent developments in the nickel market. Representatives from Government, industry and international organisations discussed the impact of geopolitical uncertainties and trade policy changes on the commodity markets, amongst other things. Especially in focus was Indonesia, where delays in grants for mining projects (RKABs) have led to supply bottlenecks, and China which has expanded its production of nickel cathodes and sulphate, while NPI production there is dwindling. In other countries, because of a lack of profitability, more and more production sites have been closed, or production reduced or a closure at least being considered. According to INSG, the effects of the new Indonesian mining tax in the sector have not so far been fully seen.

The INSG expects a further increase in global nickel production to 3.735 million tonnes in 2025 (without including possible production disruptions) from 3.526 million tonnes in 2024 and 3.363 million tonnes in 2023. Also consumption is set to rise to 3.537 million tonnes, after 3.347 million tonnes in 2024 and 3.193 million tonnes in 2023. However, the forecast for the market remains in a structural surplus, which has risen from 170,000 tonnes in 2023 to over 179,000 tonnes in 2024 and probably to 198,000 tonnes in 2025. The stainless steel sector continues to drive demand while the use of nickel in batteries is below expectations, especially through the increased use of lithium-iron-phosphate based batteries. However, new pCAM projects (precursor cathode active material) could ensure stronger demand in the future.