“The kid gloves are off, the boxing gloves are on”

Haggling which does not want to end
There is still a tough struggle between the USA and the other states over the general tariffs imposed by the USA on imported goods. It is about finding the tariff rate which would be acceptable for the other countries but at the same time so President Trump still looks good enough in his camp and in regard to his election promises. The USA would like to make deals, but the other countries also know their strengths and potential leverage.

The largely confidential tariffs talks are, therefore, dragging on due to the complex nature. Now and again compromises by the parties are also reached as discussions are not really just a one way street. The short term winner seems, however, to be first of all Trump for the tariff revenues have actually risen more than they have in such a long time. The definitive tariffs should now be introduced on the 1st August 2025 in the USA.

However, as part of the negotiating tactics of the Trump administration, “letters” were already sent out in the middle of July, to South Korea and Japan, and also to Canada, Mexico and Brazil, and then at the start of the 29th calendar week also to Europe. The tariff rate for the European Union (EU) is supposed to now be 30%. But the EU can also negotiate and has already released its own list of counter tariffs and steps, but has also delayed the implementation until the beginning of August.

It is like a commentator of the German Tagesschau news programme advices for the EU in the negotiations with the USA: ”The kid gloves are off, on with the boxing gloves.” Both parties hope that the new round will result in further concessions and thus de facto a further move towards an acceptable compromise. The industrial metals, copper, aluminium and nickel, remain volatile, though not in unison, in light of the continuing uncertainties.

For example, the USA, despite a substantial own production, is still dependent on imports for about half of its copper requirements. Yet the US President would like to also levy special tariffs on top of the specific tariffs on certain goods for individual countries, such as 50% for copper. While long-standing market observers can understand the desire of the USA to boost its domestic copper production, they do not, however, think exorbitant tariffs are a very good idea in view of the still considerable demand.

Instead, it is assumed that the copper price could be dampened in the short term due to regulation and the connected decline in demand, but that in the medium term the market could be straggled with a higher copper price in the USA. Therefore, the US tariffs could be at least in part compensated, with a lower price level outside of the United States. This would hardly be the base for a new Eldorado for copper consumers. And finally, the leading commodity exchanges, the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), would also permanently have different prices for copper.

The LME 3-months nickel future contract in all this turmoil is still around USD 15,000.00/mt, whereby prices in the last 30 days were also seen just below USD 14,800.00/mt, and almost at USD 15,500.00/mt. If the expectations components of the purchasing managers’ indices are taken as a measure, the real economy actually wants to move upwards again, while the permanent uncertainty caused by government action is slowing down this movement.

It would, therefore, certainly make sense for an agreement to be reached with the USA by the 1st of August 2025, as stability and planning certainty are indispensable requisites for companies and consumption to start to recover again. Of course, significant double-digit tariffs (at least in some sectors) would lead to considerable changes in trade flows, with corresponding short-term friction losses. However, new trade relationships and partnerships would also emerge. In this context, it is not yet clear who will end up on the playing field and who will be on the sidelines (see also copper).

In any case, the adjustment for imports and exports has long since begun in regard to the USA, but also because of the EU and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). Which trader sends goods on a long transportation to their destination if it is not clear what margin can ultimately be expected? With the current turmoil and changing announcements, a safe margin can quickly turn into a loss-making business. Unless the USA can be given a wide berth from the beginning.

Great Britain in transition: Moving from blast furnaces to EAF furnaces
The UK steel industry is once again in the spotlight after the government recently took control of the British Steel plant in Scunthorpe. Although there is a cross-party agreement, this move is more like an emergency plaster for a severely battered sector. Great Britain now only produces around 4 million tonnes of steel – a drop of 29% – and only 35th ranking in the world. At the same time, about 6.45 million tonnes steel goods were imported in 2024. The traditional blast furnaces run on imported iron ore and coke, from countries such as Australia and Mauretania, created enormous costs and high carbon emissions. Companies like Tata Steel and British Steel have recently been showing daily losses totalling almost millions.

One possible way out of this is a transition to electric arc furnaces (EAF), which smelt steel scrap. Great Britain produces an annual 10 to 11 million tonnes steel scrap whereby only 2.6 million tonnes are used domestically and the main part is exported. While Tata plans an EAF plant in Port Talbot for 2027, British Steel has so far turned down this step – despite a government offer of sterling 500 million for the conversion. Critics argue that EAF steel only displaces CO₂ emissions due to the limited global availability of scrap, but the local use of scrap with the comparatively climate-friendly British electricity mix can effectively reduce emissions.

In addition, Great Britain could not only reduce its import dependence by a greater use of EAFs, but also better supply strategically important sectors, such as defence and renewable energies. High value steel for wind turbines, for example, can also be produced in the meantime with EAF technology – as examples in the USA and France show. At the same time British consumers are losing their access to locally produced recycled steel at the moment, since the export market – especially Turkey – is dominating with lower prices and EAF steel has to be increasingly imported from abroad.

The challenge now is to introduce a socially acceptable structural change. While the amount of workforce needed for EAF plants is less than that of classic blast furnaces, a greater EAF use could, however, stabilise jobs, ensure competitiveness and improve the ecological balance in the long-term. The decisive question remains: Will the British government seize this last chance to build a green and sustainable steel industry? The course for this has to be set now.

This summer solar power overtakes nuclear power for the first time globally
In the summer of 2025, globally produced power from solar energy will be more than that from nuclear power plants – an important milestone for an increased share of solar energy in the global energy mix. While solar power, throughout the year, remains behind wind, hydro and nuclear power, in the summer months it always reaches new highs.

Last summer, solar energy already overtook global wind turbine capacity in the northern hemisphere for the first time. In the course of this year nuclear power will also be surpassed during the summer months in terms of electricity production. Therefore, hydropower remains the last low-carbon energy segment which has not been surpassed by solar energy – at least temporarily.

The massive expansion of solar capacities is responsible for this: Between 2014 and 2024 solar capacities installed globally increased by the factor ten to 1,866 gigawatts (GW). This is more than any other energy source. In comparison: Wind power increased in the same time frame by the factor 3.2, all other energy forms less than twice as much. In the meantime, in total capacity, solar is behind coal (2,174 GW) and natural gas (2,055 GW) but significantly ahead of hydropower (1,283 GW) and wind (1,132 GW).

Thanks to this expansion rate solar energy production rose by 34% in the first three months of 2025 compared to the previous year. Should this growth continue, then over 260 terawatt hours (TWh) could be produced in June, July and August respectively – more than the average 223 TWh from nuclear power plants.

This presents opportunities and challenges to network operators: The irregular solar production needs flexible power networks and new storage solutions. Lower costs for battery systems are, therefore, promoting the so-called “solar-plus-battery” model. This provides the possibility of storing excess solar energy in order to use it later – an important step in reducing fossil fuels and to further decarbonise the electricity supply.

Nickel of the future: climate friendly production with hydrogen plasma
Scientists from the Max-Planck Institute for Sustainable Materials (MPI-SusMat) have developed an innovative process which allows “green” nickel to be produced in one single step and in a low-carbon and energy efficient way. Low-grade nickel ores, which make up about 60 % of the world’s nickel deposits, are treated with hydrogen plasma. These laterite ores have hardly been used so far as their processing was technically much too complex.

Nickel is an important material for energy transition, especially for batteries in electric cars, power grids and stainless steel. Global demand for nickel will probably double by 2040 and will then be over six million tonnes annually. At the same time, conventional nickel production releases large amounts of carbon – about 20 tonnes carbon per tonne nickel. Along with sustainable and indispensable recycling commodities, such as stainless steel scrap, the new process could help to drastically reduce this environmental impact.

In the new process, melting, reduction, separation and refining are combined in one step. Through this ferro-nickel is produced, a high-quality alloy with minimal impurities. Instead of conventional carbon- based reduction means, hydrogen plasma is used. By controlling the thermodynamics in the electric arc furnace, the complex mineral structures are converted to simple ions, totally without catalysts.

A huge advantage is the energy savings: The process needs up to 18% less energy since the ore does not have to be continuously heated and cooled. In addition, the furnace can be fully operated using renewable energies. The total reduction of carbon emissions compared to conventional production is up to about 84%.

The researchers now want to upscale the process for industrial usage. They do, however, have to ensure that the unreduced melt, is always at the top of the reaction surface. This should be achieved with familiar technologies such as “electric arcs with high currents, electromagnetic stirring systems and gas pulses”.

The “green” ferro-nickel can be either used directly for stainless steel or processed for batteries. The resulting slag can also be used, such as for cement or bricks. In addition, the process can be transferred to other important metals, such as cobalt, which would further promote sustainable production for electromobility and energy storage.

We wish all our readers nice relaxing summer holidays, including pleasant and safe bathing. A little cooling off would be good for the world, not only because of climate change, but also because of the overheated mood. It is still good to keep a clear head to be able to try to solve problems and conflicts seriously and successfully.